Lake Lanier & Luxury Properties

From Pete Edwards, HPYC Founder, Resident, Member of HPYC Advisory Board & Neighborhood Realtor

April Follow-Up Below:
Monday, April 4, 2005

2005 Lake Lanier Real Estate Market Report
By Pete Edwards ' Harbour Point Founder - Resident & Founder Lanier Luxury Homes .com
Corps Shoreline Management Plan Approved
Less Than 1061 New Dock Permits To Go!
News: After more than four years of public hearings and adjustments, the Army Corps Of Engineers' Revised Shoreline Management Plan has been approved and implemented as of Dec 22, 2004. A copy of the Plan is posted on our web site at www.LanierLuxuryHomes.com. Since we specialize in Luxury Lakefront properties, lots & land on Lanier, we are constantly talking with the Corps and recently met with Chris Lovelady for an update on the Plan and it's implications to new Private Boat Slip Permits. In the most recent update on March 29th, 2005 he provided the following information.

'Currently there are 8,869 permits for private docks, 350 community dock equivalents and an additional 44 permits pending action for a total of 9,260. Request for new docks are never ending however, it is nearly impossible to determine how long it will take to exhaust the remaining permits. Currently I am working with several land developers and would guess that 250 dock equivalents are pending. For this reason it is very difficult to predict when we will reach our cut off point of 10,615 permits.'

Overview: When you add the pending community dock equivalents and the 44 pending private permits to the current total of 9260 and subtract that from the 10,615 maximum on the Lake, the new slip permits remaining are at 1061. In years past the Corps would normally issue somewhere between 150 and 200 slip permits per year, but I believe this year they will issue close to 400 if not more. Based on that forecast there will be no more new slip permits available two and half years from today. But if one considers the high level of activity by developers / builders and the large number of slip equivalents they normally request, and then add in the increases from private lot Buyers as the public becomes more aware of the situation, it's likely that in less than two years Buyers seeking a private boat slip property on the Lake will only be able to purchase Re-Sale property that already has a valid slip permit. All of the Marinas on the Lake have over the last few years built out their remaining allotment of slips in anticipation of the plan approval. The remainder of the private slip permits will be allocated on a first come first serve basis, regardless of location on the Lake. Also with respect to any new subdivision on the Lake the developer will be required to use a community dock and no permits will be issued for individual docks.

Market Impact: The knowledge of the potential limitation of new slips via the Plan has already had a significant upward impact on property prices. Since last year prices (for quality properties with permit capability) have increased 17 % - 20%, and will continue to rise faster than the general (off lake) real estate market. Specifically on Lake Lanier since we will now have an ever decreasing supply of potential permitted lake front properties and an ever increasing demand that market will remain strong. In our 04 Lake Forecast last spring, we correctly predicted that all price bands of the market below $1,000,000 would be strong Seller's Markets, and that the above $1,000,000 market would be improving. That forecast remains the same today, but with price increases sure to come this season.

Sellers: For Sellers this will be the best year since 2000 to sell their property at top market prices. The ability to price at top of the market due to demand balanced out by the current low interest rates, allows Sellers to present an overall cost of purchase offering that is still appealing to Buyers. We are recommending to our current Selling Clients to ready their property for sale and go to market NOW!

Buyers: For Buyers this year presents an opportunity to buy on the Lake at prices and interest rates that are lower today than they will be at any time in the foreseeable future. As supply of permitted lots decreases and interest rates rise, Buyers will see their buying power will erode over the next several years. We are just now beginning to see mortgage rates increase due to the Fed's 6 consecutive rate hikes and it is clear that they intend on continuing to move rates up. As mortgage rates move up, Buyers are less able to afford both the higher property price and mortgage rates and therefore we are recommending to all of our Buyer Clients that NOW is the time to buy rather than later. Buyers who wait will simply be priced out of the Lake Lanier Market.

The Broader Market: Taking a look across the broader Southeast US waterfront market, Lake Lanier prices are actually lagging in price increases. While many thought that the recent hurricanes would suppress that market both in Florida and along the Southeast Coast, a much more powerful force is driving the market demand and price surge and that is the 'Baby Boomer' tidal wave that has already rolled south. During recent trips to Florida I had the opportunity to talk with several waterfront Realtors, and in every case they described their market as 'white hot'. So much so that it is almost a speculative risk market. But considering the extraordinary numbers of Boomers that will be retiring over the next 15 years, and how many will be looking for waterfront property, the indications are for long term price and demand increases. For us that has been verified by the number of Clients and Customers that tell us they have looked at the Coast and Florida and that Lake Lanier property is a 'Steal' at current pricing.

Lanier Luxury Homes Team News: Due to our wonderful Clients and Customers Lanier Luxury Homes was the Top Sales Group at RE/MAX of Atlanta ' Gainesville for 2004! We are growing again! Patricia Long, licensed in 1996 has joined the LLH team, and will be focused on Lakefront properties on the west side of Lake Lanier in Forsyth County. We are also actively recruiting senior Realtors with Lake and Luxury Home experience, as well as another Team Administrative Assistant. We hope to be at a total of 6 Agents by Q3 of 2005 if not sooner.

Our marketing reach has also expanded as we now advertise all of our listings on additional new sites such as PrimeWaterfront.com, LakeHouse.com, PrimeWaterfront.com & LakeHomesUSA.com.

We have also expanded our business base beyond the sale of Lakefront Homes, Luxury Homes, Land & Lots on Lanier with the sale in 04 of the Pine Forest On Lanier Subdivision and will shortly be bringing to market a fabulous new Lake subdivision named Rogers Bay On Lanier. Last year was a banner year for the team as we more than doubled our business and we anticipate over 15 Million in sales this year. Year to date 05, even before the real selling season starts we have sold or have under contract at this time over $5,000,000 in sales, and we have Buyers waiting in all price ranges. If you're considering selling, please call us today!
We are excited about the positive response from our Clients and Customers as we expand, and are thankful for their business and the opportunity to work for them. 'What better work could we be doing than making dreams come true for our Clients and Customers when we find them that perfect property on Lake Lanier!'
If you would like more detailed information about the Lake market or Harbour Point'Call Or Email Us Now
Email: PeteEdwards@Charter.net
The Hardest Working Real Estate Website on the Internet www.LanierLuxuryHomes.com
Pete Edwards: 678-549-2770,
Patricia Long 404-213-4483

December Follow-Up Below:
Monday, December 27, 2004

Prepared by Peter Edwards of Lanier Luxury Homes.com & RE/MAX of Atlanta

VICTORY for the LLA

As most of you know by now, the Georgia Supreme Court has ruled in favor of your Association on almost every item we cited in challenging the Appellate court decision. The EPD permit issued to Gwinnett County for the discahrge of 40 MILLION gallons a day of treated sewage into Lake Lanier has been invalidated and rendered illegal! This represents a major victory for the Lake, all of Georgia's waters and especially for your Association. This legal battle has lasted four years, with many hearings, documentation, meetings and appeals finally resulting in a decision by the Supreme Court. We are very pleased with the decision and feel that we were correct in challenging the state and the county while trying to protect the waters of Lake Lanier.

The next actions in this case are the responsibility of the Environmental Protection Division (EPD) and Gwinnett County. We expect them to try to reissue the permit, based on comments from Gwinnett County personnel. The Lake Lanier Association (LLA) will begin meeting with the interested parties (politicians, Dr Carol Couch - EPD director, and others) to negotiate a consistent water management strategy for the State. This should include water withdrawal and conservation action plans in addition to thorough investigation into alternative uses for treated sewage discharges. Lake Lanier has been the sewage discahrge location of choice for Georgia, evidenced by the myriad reports calling for Lanier discharges (Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning Districts' report calls for over 200 MGD discharge into Lanier by the mid 2020s). We are convinced that this Supreme Court ruling has provided the impetus for Georgia to do the right thing and develop a reuse strategy for treated sewage, rather than use Lanier as the main discharge point.

As part of this report, we are making an additional appeal for donations to help defray the costs of this legal action. The LLA has spent almost $600,000 on this case, and see an additional $150,000 - $200,000 required to bring these issues to conclusion. There is ample work ahead, including challenging the EPD permit issued this year to the City of Gainesville for 25 MGD discharge into Lanier.

June Follow-Up to March Article Below:
Tuesday, June 15, 2004

Prepared by Peter Edwards of Lanier Luxury Homes.com & RE/MAX of Atlanta

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS ON LAKE LANIER
'Lake Lanier Market Takes Off!'

This document was prepared to give prospective Buyers, Sellers, Builders and Investors a view of the current Real Estate Market conditions for Lake Lanier waterfront properties. Only properties that are listed in FMLS with lake name = Lanier are considered here.

'A Perfect Storm of Uncertainty'
During the period from 1999 through 2003 the National Weather Service classified the conditions in the Ga. area as a 'Severe Drought'. At some points in this time period the pool level of Lake Lanier was down as much as 17 feet below full pool of 1070.6 feet above sea level. This drought condition has only affected the lake this severely twice in 50 years, but even so it had a dramatic effect on the Lake Real Estate market. Overlay that with the aftermath effects of 9/11 to the economy, the collapse of the tech bubble in the stock market, uncertainty about the Tri State Water Plan negotiations and what was created was tremendous uncertainty about the future of the Lake which drove demand for lake property well below what it normally has been. Many Sellers either lowered their prices or accepted substantially lower prices than what market valuations suggested. Many others simply pulled their properties off the market to await better conditions, and many Buyers just withdrew from the market.

'The Recovery'
Approximately two years ago in 2002, a year after Colonel Bob Keyser had been appointed head of the Mobile District of the Army Corps of Engineers which manages all Federal Gov't water ways in the Southeast USA, the drought conditions began to wane, and lake levels rose. Colonel Keyser's aggressive & positive management of water levels on the lake coupled with a return to normal rainfall levels last year has now kept the lake close to or at or above full pool. Along with the improving economy and improvements in the stock market, albeit with a view of real estate as a better investment vehicle, we have been predicting since last spring that the market would switch from a Buyer's market to a Seller's market in mid to late 2004. While the market has been somewhat erratic, demand in the market has been improving and as the market strengthens consistency will return. Another factor delaying a market switch has been the delays to the final approval of the Army Corps of Engineers' 'Revised Shoreline Management Plan'. Scheduled for approval last year it has been delayed several times and will finally be approved and implemented this fall.

'The Future'
The Shoreline Plan for the first time in the history of the Lake will limit the total number of private dock slip permits on the lake to 10,600, with approximately 8,800 in place today. In doing so, it simply will cap the supply side of the equation in which demand will continue to rise and supply will continue to decrease. Once this final piece of the puzzle is in place and the general buying / selling public becomes more aware, then the market will complete its switch to a Seller's market with annual appreciation rates at 7% to 9% or higher, up from 4% to 6% in the past. Depending upon other market forces, it could easily be as high as 10% to 15% annually. Investors and Developers, who track the lake market more closely, are already moving quickly to add lake property (lots, land and fixer uppers) to their portfolios.

'Current Conditions'
During the last year, different segments of the Lake market have faired differently, with lower priced properties doing well and higher priced properties, not so well. Demand in the $300,000 plus or minus range has remained strong and quality properties continue to sell with shorter days on market and closer to listing price. On the opposite end of the market, in the million dollars plus range it has not been unusual to have properties sell for under list price after a year on the market.

MARKET STATISTICS REPORT
The following data was taken from FMLS with a search criteria of Lake Name = Lanier, time = June 2003 to June 2004. It is a reasonable reflection of the market, but not the totals since some Realtors will list in only one MLS service.

Lanier Properties Sold Current Inventory % Of One Year

$200K - $500K: 673 253 37.59%

$500K - $800K: 134 94 70.15%

$800K - $1200K: 45 45 100.00%

$1200K - & Up: 6 38 633.33%

It is important to note that the comparisons over the last year straddle market conditions changing from weak to strong. In those cases where the data show last year sales higher than current inventory, in an improving market, it suggests that the switch to a sellers or strong market is at hand. Barring unforeseen reversals in the market, the recovery will continue with market conditions for each price range improving fairly quickly and the lower end switching to a Seller's market this summer. The implementation of the Shoreline Management Plan, will only serve to fuel the market improvement, and shorten the time frames below. If we were to break the market into segments by dollar value our predictions for when each segment will be a strong market it would be as follows:

Price Range Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05

$200k -$500k Improving Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong

$500k-$800k Improving Improving Strong Strong Strong Strong

$800k-$1.2M Weak Improving Improving Strong Strong Strong

$1.2M- & up Weak Weak Improving Improving Strong Strong

Conclusions:
Those Owners in the $200K to $500K range considering selling should be 'staging' their homes and listing now.
Those Owners in the $500K to $800K range considering selling should be 'staging' their homes and listing in the next two quarters.
Those Owners in the $800K to $1,200K range should be planning to list their properties in Q1 or Q2 2005.
Those Owners in the above $1,200K range should revisit the market conditions in early 2005 with their Realtor to determine a sales strategy.

Recommendations:
For Buyers the market for the most part currently presents an advantage that will soon disappear. As demand will continue to out strip supply in the under $800K ranges, Owners will regain the advantage and prices will rise. The demand has not yet out stripped supply, interest rates are relatively low, and there are a number of quality properties on the market in all sections of the lake and those who move quickly will benefit from the current conditions.

For Sellers in the less than $800K ranges, the market presents a great opportunity, not seen since 1999. We are still enjoying low interest rates, a lake consistently at full pool, increased interest in real estate as an investment, a recovering economy, and another surge in the Greater Metro Atlanta Area growth rate. (The GMAA has for the 13th year in a row led the nation in new home construction) We are advising all of our current potential selling Clients to prepare their homes for market and list as soon as possible to take advantage of the best sales season in four years.

For Builders & Investors the market provides a sweet spot today in the $300K to $600K range, for product coming to market now or in the next two quarters. Buying lots now for construction of homes in the $300K to $1,200K range over the next two or three quarters is the prudent move to make. Normal build-out time for those homes will be in the six to nine month range and therefore they will reach market at the time the market demand will outstrip the supply. Currently there is only one MLS listed lakefront tract of land over ten acres that also has sufficient shoreline to meet the new Corps requirements as well as minimum lot sizes required now or coming shortly. While the two main Lake / Boating lifestyle communities on lake Lanier will be selling lots for the next several years, there is substantial demand for larger lots with water views in small gated subdivisions, and that demand will only continue to rise. Our recommendation remains the same, Builders & Investors should move aggressively to take advantage of an ever decreasing supply and consistently increasing demand for lakefront properties.

'Lanier Luxury Homes & The Market'
As we have been predicting since January 2004, this year is shaping up as the best since 1999 for sales of Lake Lanier property. In the first four months of this year our business is running at a rate that forecasts a doubling of last year's production. While many of our competitors have yet to see similar results, our technological advantage over most Realtors is proving to also be a substantial benefit to our Listing Clients, as is our aggressive print, internet, & local and national marketing of our Client's listings. The substantial investments in marketing and sales technologies we have made over the last two years are clearly differentiating us and leveraging the breadth of the market and price range of properties we list and sell as well as increasing our effectiveness with our Buyer Clients.

Lake Lanier Real Estate News
Dateline: Buford Georgia March 1, 2009

Corps of Engineers issues Last Private Dock Permit on Lake Lanier!
Almost 57 years to the day since the birthday of the Buford Dam, George and Nancy Harrington handed over their $35 check to Ranger Lawrence and then scooped up the last and final private dock slip permit to ever be issued on Lake Lanier. The Harringtons purchased their lot .....

Well it's not this year's headline, but soon enough something like this will be appearing in the headlines of the AJC and the Times. In a recent conversation with a Corps Ranger we got the following update on the Shoreline Management Plan. They anticipate final approval this spring in the April May timeframe. In the final revision of the Plan last year, it called for a maximum of approximately 10,600 private dock permits, with approximately 8600 in place as of then. As of last week the estimate was 1800+ left to go. They also estimate that the rate of permit issuance will be in the 200 to 250 per year range, or more, depending on the strength of the economy and growth rate of Metro Atlanta area.

Common sense and supply and demand laws suggest that as the general buying public becomes more aware of the limited number of permits going forward, the price of lake property should strengthen and appreciate at a higher rate in future years. We're not investment advisors, so always consult your own financial advisor, prior to purchasing real estate as an investment.

With the economy on a ramp to a better than expected recovery, the stock market surging, continued low interest rates, and water level up, this promises to be the best year since 1999 for Lake Lanier Real Estate sales. Adding to increasing demand and pricing strength, will be the spring implementation of the Army Corps' long awaited Lake Lanier Revised Shoreline Management Plan.

Last spring we had predicted a turn in the market from a Buyer's Market to a Seller's Market around mid year 2004. We are standing by that prediction and believe we are well on the way to a Seller's market in the next several months. We are currently advising our Owner clients that this is the time to list their properties for sale. Buyer activity levels and demand are the highest we have seen in the last three years, and the difference between listing price and selling price is beginning to narrow, another indicator of stronger demand versus inventory. Exactly when the switch will occur is tied to the increasing Buyer demand and when it will outstrip available inventory......but make no mistake...the market is moving in that direction, and it's time to list before interest rates start to increase.

Results for 2003 Real Estate Sales
Georgia Multiple Listing Service Reports for All Areas
of Lake Lanier ' Waterfront Properties
262 property Transactions Closed
Lowest Sales Price $180,000 ... Highest Sales Price $1,750,000
Average Listing Price $448,000 ... Average Sale Price $412,949
7.8% Differential

Lanier Luxury Homes Team News

Team Growth:

Since last April the team has grown from one to four full time experienced agents. Driven by demand for our services we're continuing to recruit select Agents with specific market knowledge as we expand the lines of property we service for Owners and Buyers. We hope to be at ten full time agents later this spring. We have also added our own Administrator to allow us to maximize time on Marketing our Client's properties, and working with Buyers.

Team Company:

We have joined RE/MAX 400 NORTH, one of the largest, oldest, and fastest growing Real Estate Companies in the US & Georgia. Within the RE/MAX International organization, RE/MAX 400 NORTH is ranked in the top 5 Nationwide and in the Top 100 Worldwide. Their superior marketing, technology, support and 'Best of the Best' Agent skills are the perfect match up with our Team. In addition to our home offices, you can find us at RE/MAX 400 NORTH at 391 Quill Drive, Suite 100 in Dawsonville.

Marketing Technology:

In a continued effort to 'raise the bar' of outstanding property marketing for outstanding results, we have invested in a new high speed wireless network, two new high powered computers, and new high speed C O L O R PRINTERS. This allows us to produce professional grade advertising Brochures, Pamphlets, and Flyers for all of our Listings, completely in house, with less than 24 hour turnaround time. We show your Listing in both Georgia MLS & First MLS! Our web site www.LanierLuxuryHomes.com has gotten over 40,100 Buyer Visits, and traffic continues to grow every month! It usually commands the top position in searches for Lake Lanier Real Estate in all the major search engines. Every week we feature two Listings on AJC.com and all of our Listings are automatically shown on Realtor.com, Homes.Com, 360 House.com, YaHoo Real Estate and more! This site will soon be joined by www.onlakelanier.com and our Land & Lot listings are now shown World Wide on www.loopnet.com.

Print Marketing:

Through our worldwide Internet marketing coupled with our Print ads we make sure every potential Buyer will see your property. Every month we run the LARGEST LAKE LANIER AJC AD and then we run another to direct Buyers to our websites. As of March we launch our Renowned Properties Program & will be advertising select properties in the Wall Street Journal & New York Times. We also advertise in the Times & Lakeside as appropriate.

Client Commitment:

We will show your property to more Buyers than any Realtor......Period!!
We are excited about the upcoming year and look forward to working with you!
The Lanier Luxury Homes Team!
If you're considering selling, please call us and we will be glad to prepare an analysis of how your property compares to similar Lake properties, and give you the latest news on sales. Visit us at www.lanierluxuryhomes.com to stay abreast of all the latest news on Lake Lanier Real Estate.

Lake Lanier GA Real Estate For Sale