Lake Lanier & Luxury Properties

2006 Lake Lanier Real Estate Market Report
Peter Edwards - Owner, Lanier Luxury Homes .com
AND THEY'RE OFF & RUNNING
Less Than 980 Permits Left & The Race Is On For Lakefront Property with Private Boat Slip!

News: Prior to, and ever since, the Army Corps Of Engineers' Revised Shoreline Management Plan was implemented on Dec 22, 2004, the Lake Lanier Real Estate values have been on a sustained upward trajectory. Barring a serious economic dislocation, we forecast that 2006 will be the best year for sales of properties on Lanier in the 50 year history of the Lake. The almost perfect convergence of decreasing slip availability, ongoing low interest rates, a strong economy, a healthy stock market, and the "Baby Boomer" demand surge have combined to deliver an ideal market for Sellers, and a great opportunity for Buyers and Investors also. Bursting Bubble? Not on Lake Lanier! Well maybe champagne bubbles!

Boat Slip Permits: This year the Corps issued over 600 change of ownership permits indicating sales of properties with existing boat slip permits. In my March conversation with the Corps, it was estimated that there are fewer than 1000 slip permits remaining, with requests for 85 private slip permits and requests for 400 community slip permits in play as of March. Since the community slips are issued on a two for one basis, that amount totals to 285 potential slip permit requests as of last month. It's logical to assume that during the next nine months an additional 200 - 300 requests will be made. In years past the Corps would normally issue somewhere between 150 to 200 new slip permits per year, but I believe they will issue close to 400 this year and over 500 next year. Based on that forecast there will be no more new slip permits available two years from today. Thereafter, Buyers seeking a private boat slip property on the Lake will only be able to purchase Re-Sale property that already has a valid slip permit. The remainder of the private slip permits will be allocated on a first come first serve basis, regardless of location on the Lake. Also with respect to any new subdivision on the Lake the developers are now required to use a community dock, with private slips, and no permits will be issued for individual docks.

Interest Rates: Current long term interest rates, while having risen, still remain at historical lows at around 6.25% - 6.50% even after 14 consecutive short term interest rate hikes by the Fed. The consensus opinion now seems to be that the Fed may raise rates one more time this year, and long term rates for a 30 year fixed mortgages will rise, albeit slowly, during this year. The economy remains strong and the consensus opinion is that it will stay strong through Q3, 06 and then soften slightly in Q4. That softening projected for Q4 will simply serve to slow any further increase in mortgage rates ... still great for Buyers and Sellers.

Population Growth: All five of the counties that border on Lake Lanier are in the top 25 fastest growing counties in the State of Georgia (as of 2003) with Forsyth County the fastest growing. Why are we growing so fast? Well add up a growing Metro area expanding in all directions, a great climate, access to one of the most beautiful lakes in the US, relatively low taxes, and relatively low cost of construction, and you have a formula for high growth. Overlay that with the surge of Baby Boomers moving south and the extraordinarily high price of Southeast Coastal property and the stage is set for explosive growth in the greater Lake area.

Market Impact:The implementation of the Revised Shoreline Management Plan in 12/2004 has fundamentally changed the nature of the lake market forever. The knowledge of the potential limitation of new slips via the Plan has been driving an upward migration on prices of quality Lake property. Since last year prices (for quality properties with permit or permit capability) have increased 18% - 22%, and will continue to rise faster than the general (off lake) real estate market. We are again forecasting that property values on the lake will appreciate at a rate from 18%- 22% if not higher, in 2006. Since we will now have an ever decreasing supply of potential permitted properties on Lake Lanier, and an ever increasing demand, the Lake market will remain strong for years to come. In our 2005 Lake Forecast last spring, we correctly predicted that all price bands of the market below $1,000,000 would be strong Seller�s Markets, and that the above $1,000,000 market would be improving. Well improve it did, to the tune of a 5X increase in re-sales of properties above $1,000,000 sold. Furthermore, for the first time in years the number of sold properties in the $400,000 to $700,000 price range was higher than the number of properties sold in the less than $400,000 range. It shows that inventory is shrinking in the lower price range while demand is strong in all price ranges.

Who's Buying: Builders, Developers, & Investors are leading the way with individual Buyers close behind. Last year there was lots of talk about the coming influx of buyers from Florida & the Gulf Coast due to the horrendous hurricane season. In reality the southeast coastal market remains ok, although noticeably softer, and will most likely bounce back next year. The "south to north" buyers that we are working with are folks that have achieved high levels of appreciation and are now cashing in, banking part of their profits and investing here on the Lake. The other source of south to north Buyers are folks anticipating retirement and investing in summer / vacation homes with an eye towards eventual retirement relocation to the Lake. The third source of "south to north" Buyers are our usual base from the greater metro area and local counties. Becoming ever more a significant source of Buyers is the "north to south" Boomers at or near retirement age. When one recognizes that there are some 70 million Boomers who will retire during the next 15 years and add another 10 million post boomers who will be investing for their retirement soon, it's easy to see where the Buyers driving increased demand will come from

Who's Selling: Many of the new home sales on the Lake are at places such as Harbour Point, Marina Bay, Chestatee, the Shores and our subdivisions at Pine Forest on Lanier and Rogers Bay on Lanier, and the Buyers are from all categories. Most of the re-sales are in several categories: The owner who has achieved high appreciation and is selling to take profit and re-invest; those who no longer use their weekend / summer home on the lake as they did in the past; retirees seeking Adult oriented communities now springing up in the area, or those relocating for career changes.

Real Advice for Sellers: For Sellers this will be the best year since 2000 to sell their property at top market prices. The ability to price at top of the market due to demand aided by the current low interest rates, allows Sellers to present an overall cost of purchase offering that is still appealing to Buyers. We are recommending to our current Owner Clients to ready their property for sale and go to market NOW! A cautionary note for Owners with permit-able properties that do not yet have permits. Do not wait another day to apply for your slip permit! Owners that have permits but no dock yet, contact one of the dock companies and get a "placeholder" dock installed now.

Real Advice for Buyers: For Buyers this year presents an opportunity to buy on the Lake at prices and interest rates that are lower today than they will be at any time in the foreseeable future, with high confidence that their investment will grow in value. As supply of permitted lots decreases and interest rates rise, Buyers will see their buying power will erode over the next several years. We are just now beginning to see mortgage rates increase due to the Fed's consecutive rate hikes and strength of the economy and it is clear that they intend on continuing to move rates up. As mortgage rates move up, Buyers are less able to afford both the higher property price and mortgage rates and therefore we are recommending to our Buyer Clients that NOW is the time to buy rather than later. Buyers who wait will simply be priced out of the Lake Lanier Market.

Next Development Trends for Lake Access: As the availability slip permits, as well as the availability of large lakefront tracts of land disappear, the nature of subdivisions being planned and developed either on the lake or in the area will evolve. If you cannot develop with slips at community docks or boat docks, the next best alternative is to have a secure boat storage area as part of your subdivision, as well as a location that is close to one of the public boat ramps. With the exception of a few large projects in planning now, the subdivisions will also be smaller in size with limited amenities.

Next Trend in Real Estate: Lifetime Realtor Services: "The hardest part of any relocation or real estate transaction is finding a talented Agent I can trust, can depend on, and know will put my interests first." If you've found trustworthy, dependable, and talented personal business advisors who are attuned to your needs, you probably keep them for life, as I do. Why not have a talented Realtor that you've found to be trustworthy, dependable and that you know will always put your interests first, regardless of where you live, move to, or buy or sell property. Yes a "Lifetime Realtor." Most of our Clients know the biggest challenge to a successful move is finding the right Agent(s) to work with. So in response to that need we now offer Lifetime Real Estate services where ever and when ever you need them. Here is a real life example of how it works. Our Clients (full time real estate Investors) decided to sell their property here and relocate to and invest in properties, in Florida. We listed their property here, used our marketing program to produce a top dollar offer from a qualified buyer, and handled all the details up to and through closing. At the same time we were interviewing Realtors that work in the market(s) they planned to move to and invest in, and conducted research and analyzed the market dynamics in those areas. Once we narrowed the field to three best suited Realtors, we flew in and met with our Client, conducted interviews, reviewed Buyer services and then selected the best qualified Realtor to assist with their purchase(s). At all times during their purchases of several properties we were in constant communication assuring the highest level of Buyer services from the local Buyer�s Agent. A year and a half later our Client is ready to sell one of the homes he had built and we have repeated the process to select the best Listing Agent to sell the property, and assisted with setting the "go to market" price, and reviewed the listing contracts. Also since our website gets world wide Buyer visits, we are showing their Florida property on our website and have sent it to all the Renowned Property Experts at RE/MAX world wide. With their current house ready to sell, our Clients have now asked us to start the process in anticipation for their next residence move to NY and also for their next investment property ... may well be in Costa Rica this time. "The beauty of this is at all times we know our interests are being served by you because we know you and what you have already done for us." "And best yet, it doesn�t cost us a penny more than if we used five different Realtors." "Pete is our Realtor for life!"

Lanier Luxury Homes Team News: We are growing and actively recruiting Realtors with experience, as well as a new Team AA. RE/MAX.Com ... the Largest Real Estate Site Ever!! Coming this month will be RE/MAX's super upgraded website showing ALL real estate listings. That's right...not just RE/MAX listings but ALL& listings by every Agent from all companies. For Lanier Luxury Homes' Clients this is just re-enforcement of our commitment to you that "We will show your property to more qualified Buyers than any Agent ... Period! If you're considering selling or if you would like more detailed information about the Lake market, Call or Email Us Now. Pete Edwards: 678-549-2770 Patricia Long 404-213-4483 Email: PeteEdwards@Charter.net ... www.LanierLuxuryHomes.com

Lake Lanier GA Real Estate For Sale